UPDATE FROM 1H FY26 Result ANALYSIS

PolyNovo develops innovative medical devices utilising the patented bioabsorbable polymer technology Novosorb.

The stock has recently turned from Bearish into sideways consolidation trend.

NovoSorb is a family of proprietary medical grade polymers that can be expressed in a variety of physical formats. NovoSorb polymers have advantageous properties such as biocompatibility and design flexibility. These properties underpin novel medical devices designed to support tissue repair, before they biodegrade in situ into biocompatible by-products via established pathways.

The company continue to achieve high results in every single metric as per FY26

✅ Global Sales Revenue record high

Highlights for 1H FY26

✅ U.S, PMA Submission for NovoSorb BTM is on Track for this financial year

✅ 1H FY26 Commercial Sales by Product Mix

✅ Income Statement

✅ Balance Sheet

Key Fundamental Metrics (1HF26)

Compared to 1H FY25

✅ Group Sales: $68.2m (+26.0%) vs $54.1m

✅ US Sales: $51.7m (+25.3%) vs $41.2m

✅ Rest of World Sales: $16.5m (+28.3%) vs $12.9m

✅ NovoSorb MTX Sales: $6.2m (+195.2%) vs $2.1m

✅ EMEA Sales Growth: +52.0%

✅ Australia Sales Growth: +22.9%

✅ Canada Sales Growth: +50.8%

✅ India Sales Growth: +49.1%

✅ UK Sales Growth: +19.2%

✅ US Group Purchasing Organisation (GPO) Sales: +37.8%

✅ Integrated Delivery Network (IDN) Sales: +34.1%

✅ Federal Account Sales: +87.2%

✅ New US Hospitals Added: 95

✅ US Hospitals Using BTM: 800+

✅ Operating Cash Flow: $9.0m (improved from -$12.5m)

✅ Debtor Days: 56 days (improved from 90+ days)

✅ Adjusted EBITDA: $4.7m (+82.4%) vs approximately $2.6m

✅ Manufacturing Facility Construction: Completed

✅ Cash Balance: $29.2m

✅ Total Assets: $123.3m

✅ Net Assets: $83.1m

✅ Countries Approved: 46+

✅ Patients Treated Worldwide: 106,000+

✅ Published Clinical Articles: 450+

✅ NovoSorb BTM Sales: $62.0m (+19.2%) vs $52.0m

✅ NovoSorb MTX Sales Contribution: Increased from 3.9% of sales to approximately 9.1% of sales

✅ Rest of World Contribution: Increased to 24.2% of total group sales

Adjunct/Ancillary Products

• Supportive products often registered as Class I or II medical devices.
• Generally lower regulatory barrier, but still subject to:
  • FDA listing
  • CE Mark self-certification (where applicable)
  • TGA inclusion

✅ Summary of Expected Regulatory Milestones that could move the stock price in FY26

Product	Primary Regulator(s)	Current Status (May 2026)	Expected Timing	Potential Impact
NovoSorb BTM PMA Approval (US)	FDA	Documentation being finalised. PMA submission confirmed on track.	Submission FY26, potential approval FY27	Largest catalyst. Could materially expand penetration into US burn centres.
BTM MDR Renewal (Europe)	European Union MDR / CE Mark	Renewal process ongoing. No concerns flagged by management.	FY26-FY27	Maintains European market access.
MTX Global Expansion	FDA, TGA, CE Mark, Health Canada	Approved in multiple jurisdictions. Commercial rollout accelerating globally.	Ongoing throughout FY26	Significant growth driver.
Outpatient CMS Opportunity	CMS (US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services)	Strategic focus area. Reimbursement pathway expansion under evaluation.	FY26-FY27	Potentially transformational to addressable market size.
China Expansion	NMPA (China)	Regulatory and commercial expansion progressing.	FY26-FY27	Large addressable market.
Japan Expansion	PMDA (Japan)	Regulatory pathway progressing.	FY26-FY27	Significant long-term opportunity.
SynTrel Hernia Device	FDA, CE Mark, TGA	Strong preclinical progress. No submission lodged yet.	Likely FY27	New product category expansion.
SynTrix PRS Product	FDA, CE Mark, TGA	Development progressing towards filing stage.	Likely FY27	Expands reconstructive surgery opportunity.
Particulate Product	FDA, CE Mark, TGA	Preclinical studies underway.	FY27+	Early-stage platform expansion.
Antimicrobial NovoSorb	FDA, CE Mark, TGA	Preclinical development continues. Submission timing not disclosed.	FY27+	Long-term optionality.

FY26 and Beyond Strategic Catalysts

✅ Sales Growth: Momentum expected to continue across U.S., ANZ, Europe, and India

✅ FDA PMA Submission for Full Thickness Burns remains on track

✅ Expansion into US Outpatient Market

✅ China Regulatory and Commercial Expansion

✅ Japan Regulatory and Commercial Expansion

✅ MTX Commercial Rollout Acceleration

✅ Further Hospital Penetration Across the US

Risks to Watch

🚩 Statutory Profit impacted by impairment and foreign exchange adjustments

🚩 PMA approval process remains subject to FDA review

🚩 Premium valuation relative to traditional healthcare companies

🚩 Continued execution required to maintain 20%+ revenue growth

Projection for FY26 Full Year based on 1H FY26

Using the FY25 reported result and the latest 1H FY26 performance, this is my realistic BG Trading base-case projection.

Metric	FY25 Actual	FY26 Projection	Growth
Revenue	$127.7m	$152m	+19.0%
EBITDA	~$8.5m*	$16.0m	+88.2%
NPAT	$13.2m	$18.5m	+40.2%

What Would Surprise the Market?

The market currently expects strong revenue growth.

The biggest positive surprise would be:

✅ EBITDA margin expansion

If PolyNovo demonstrates that revenue growth can convert into significantly higher earnings growth, the stock could experience a meaningful re-rating despite already trading on a premium multiple.

PolyNovo (ASX: PNV) – Technical Analysis & Probability Outlook (Using Updated Chart with BGS 20 Strategy Indicators)

Probability Outlook (BGS20 Strategy View)

Trend Structure & Moving Averages

✅ EMA9 (Yellow) has crossed above SMA40 (Red), confirming a Bullish Intersection Level 1 signal. This indicates short-term momentum has shifted in favour of buyers and marks the first stage of a potential trend reversal.

✅ SMA40 (Red) has flattened and is beginning to turn higher after an extended downtrend. This suggests medium-term selling pressure is fading and a new support structure is developing.

✅ Price has successfully reclaimed the SMA250 (Pink), currently sitting around $1.17. This is a significant technical development as PNV is no longer trading at a technically discounted price. Historically, stocks that reclaim and hold above the SMA250 often attract increased institutional interest.

✅ The current structure has transitioned into a series of higher highs and higher lows, confirming that the recent move is more than a simple relief rally and is developing into a genuine uptrend.

Support & Resistance Zones

✅ Primary Support: $1.17 to $1.18

This zone represents:

• SMA250 support
• Previous breakout level
• Recent consolidation area

A successful hold above this level would strengthen the bullish case.

✅ Secondary Support: $1.04 to $1.05

This area aligns closely with the SMA40 and represents the next major support zone should a deeper pullback occur.

🚩 BGS20 Stop Loss: $1.10

A close below this level would damage the current bullish structure and increase the probability of a failed breakout.

Resistance Levels

🚩 Immediate Resistance: $1.30

The stock is currently testing this area following the recent breakout. A decisive move above this level would likely trigger another wave of momentum buying.

🚩 BGS20 Target: $1.50

This level corresponds with previous supply and resistance from the 2025 trading range and represents approximately 24% upside from current levels.

🚩 Target 1: $1.70 to $1.75

This area marks the next major resistance zone and could be achievable if the current accumulation phase evolves into a broader trend reversal.

Volume Analysis

✅ Volume is the most constructive aspect of the chart.

Recent trading sessions have produced volume spikes exceeding 20 million shares, significantly above the historical average.

This type of volume expansion typically indicates:

• Institutional accumulation
• Increased market participation
• Strong conviction buying

Importantly, the largest volume spikes have occurred on bullish candles rather than during periods of selling pressure, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution.

RSI Analysis

✅ RSI is currently sitting around 60-62.

This is a healthy level for a developing uptrend because:

• Momentum remains positive
• The stock is not yet overbought
• There is still room for further upside before momentum becomes stretched

✅ A bullish RSI divergence formed during the recent bottoming process.

While price was making lower lows near the $0.88 region, RSI was making higher lows, signalling that selling momentum was weakening and a reversal was becoming increasingly likely.

This divergence has now been confirmed by the subsequent breakout and volume expansion.

BGS 20 Probability Assessment

Bullish Continuation Scenario

Probability: 65% to 70%

Requirements:

✅ Hold above SMA250 ($1.17)

✅ Maintain higher highs and higher lows

✅ Volume remains constructive

Under this scenario, the stock has a reasonable pathway toward the BGS20 Target of $1.50.

Pullback and Continuation Scenario

Probability: 20% to 25%

A retracement back into the $1.17 to $1.20 area would not necessarily be negative.

In fact, a successful retest of the breakout zone could create a stronger foundation for the next leg higher.

Breakdown Scenario

Probability: 10% to 15%

Requirements:

🚩 Loss of SMA250 support

🚩 Close below $1.10

🚩 Distribution volume begins to dominate

Should these conditions occur, the current bullish setup would be invalidated.

Should I buy PNV?
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