Cettire is an Australian-owned, online luxury fashion retail platform selling clothing, shoes and accessories from over 1300 international high-end fashion brands. The firm offers women’s and men’s wear from brands such as Prada, Gucci, Saint Laurent, Balenciaga and Valentino.
The company was founded by Dean Mintz in 2017 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia and had breakthrough due its innovative and adaptable approach to millenium consumers.
✅ The key competitive advantage components of Cettire are:
- Global growing TAM, with structural tailwinds and increasing penetration in multiple markets, China expansion and Beauty launch and penetration in emerging markets in FY24.
- No inventory business model
- Closing cash $46.3 million, zero debt in FY23
- Proprietary technology, enabling exceptional scalability for customer acquisition and automated order fulfilment)
- Purposeful moderation in brand investments in FY23
- Continue to optimise mix of customer acquisition investment across established (top-3) and emerging markets
- Technology driven DNA, enabling exceptional scalability
- Impressive unit economics (high AOV) and increasing repeat customer spend (growing LTV).
- Share purchases to mitigate potential dilution from share-based
- payments
- Business model of minimum risk and maximum profit with no physical rent or stock on hand cost.
Key Financial Metrics in Q1 FY24 and FY23
The company has reported extremely well across all key fundamental metrics.
✅ Cettire Gross Revenue up 87% YoY in FY23 and 98% increase on Gross revenue in Q1 FY24, which is extremely positive, specially moving towards festive season which will likely to report record breaking 1H FY24.
✅ Sales revenue up 98% to $416.2m in FY23 and 92% up in Q1FY24 pcp.
✅ Active customers up 63% to 423k with accelerating YoY growth in the last 2 quarters.
✅ 58% of gross revenue from repeat customers (FY223: 50%).
✅ Statutory EBITDA of $29.3m, and positive adjusted EBITDA during Jul-23 as sales revenue increased by approximately 120%. In Q1 FY24, Cettire experienced continued profitable growth during the period. Adjusted EBITDA1 (unaudited) of $8.7 million was achieved on a delivered margin of greater than 20%, whilst marketing investment (including brand investment) was high single-digits per cent of sales revenue. The Company’s net cash balance increased to approximately $59 million at period end.
✅ Statutory NPAT of $16m in FY23, expected to increase in H1 FY24 should festive season continue to break record sales.
✅ Very high margins in this business model.
✅ FY24 outlook is positive with the group operating to maximise profitable revenue growth whilst also self funding. The Q1 FY24, has just assured that the company is in track to deliver higher net profit grow for 1H FY24, which is exactly what investors are looking in the current hostile macro economic environment.
✅ Interest rates bites but Cettire luxury market continues into FY24 as healthy demand remains; growing online luxury penetration.
Delivered margin increased by 156% vs the pcp to $95.6 million, representing 23.0% of sales revenue (FY22: 17.8%). This demonstrates successful execution against several cost optimisation initiatives outlined at FY22 results, which reduced fulfilment cost per order, supplemented by a higher average order value.
Also noted that Centtire has decreased acquisition quite effectively, that includes a total marketing costs excluding brand investment divided by gross new customer acquisitions during the period
🚩 Risk of supply closing from the brand owners in order to protect its brand equity which is small but possible.
Business Strategy
During FY23, the Company commenced deployment of multi-language features, including Chinese, Japanese and Spanish language sites. The localisation strategy has facilitated further rapid growth within its emerging markets, with FY23 gross revenues in these markets increasing by 140% vs the pcp. Emerging markets accounted for 27% of gross revenue during the period (FY22: 21%) and could dramatically increase upcoming revenue should Centtire successfully penetrates.
Shareholder Status
We have been noticed a consistent increase in institutional investors in Cettire Limited from June to October which indicates the increase in demand for holding despite the stock has not been moved significantly in the last 4 months.
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Technically Analysis
If you have held ASX: CTT for the past 52 weeks, your position would have gained 117%, as the stock has been in recovery and accumulation phase since June 2022. The strong full FY23 results indicate that Cettire has successfully turned things around. If the RBA maintains current interest rates on hold or initiates a potential decline by year-end, this type of stock could benefit directly from relaxed monetary policy and keeps on growing its NPAT. Recent stock sell orders by the CEO and directors have put a short term ceiling into the stock price rally which entered into 4 months of share price consolidation. We are expecting a next rally towards $3.5 level in the upcoming months should the company continue to report profit growth.
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- Targets BGS20 and BG Trading, Stop loss.
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